Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6713

Bill Overview

Title: CEASE Overdose Act of 2022

Description: This bill places fentanyl-related substances as a class into schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act. A schedule I controlled substance is a drug, substance, or chemical that has a high potential for abuse; has no currently accepted medical value; and is subject to regulatory controls and administrative, civil, and criminal penalties under the Controlled Substances Act.

Sponsors: Rep. Johnson, Mike [R-LA-4]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals involved with fentanyl-related substances

Estimated Size: 500000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Logistics coordinator (Columbus, OH)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think putting more restrictions might reduce the supply, but people are always going to find a way to get drugs if they want them.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 3 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 3
Year 20 6 4

ER Nurse (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any measure to control fentanyl is a step in the right direction, but this needs to be coupled with more support for addiction treatment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Drug policy researcher (New York, NY)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy can result in better regulation, but its effects on the ground will depend on how it's implemented and monitored.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Unemployed (Fresno, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I hope that with fewer opioids on the streets, other people can find their way to recovery like I did.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Drug dealer (Baltimore, MD)

Age: 53 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Crackdown is going to make business tougher. I'll have to be more careful, but there's always a market.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 5
Year 2 2 5
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 5 6

Retired (Miami, FL)

Age: 65 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Finally, a step in the right direction. However, this should not be the end, we need holistic approaches.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Law student (Austin, TX)

Age: 25 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While necessary to control drugs, this law might increase incarceration rates instead of getting to the root of addiction issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 5 6

Community health worker (Denver, CO)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Regulating supply is one part, there needs to be more funding towards recovery and rehabilitation programs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

Police officer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More investigative and arrest powers can help, but they need the support of community programs to sustain effects.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Pharmaceutical researcher (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This might deter some pharmaceutical research that could lead to legal alternatives or solutions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $250000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $300000000)

Year 2: $255000000 (Low: $205000000, High: $305000000)

Year 3: $260000000 (Low: $210000000, High: $310000000)

Year 5: $270000000 (Low: $220000000, High: $320000000)

Year 10: $285000000 (Low: $235000000, High: $335000000)

Year 100: $350000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $400000000)

Key Considerations