Bill Overview
Title: Trafficking Reduction And Criminal Enforcement (TRACE) Act
Description: This bill modifies provisions related to firearms tracing. First, the bill directs the Department of Justice to promulgate regulations that require each firearm manufactured in the United States to be marked with a serial number that is located inside the firearm's receiver or that is visible only in infrared light, in addition to the serial number mark otherwise required. Next, it requires National Instant Criminal Background Check System records to be maintained for at least 180 days. The bill also requires each licensed firearms dealer to conduct a physical check of their firearms business inventory. Finally, it removes certain limitations on the use of firearms tracing data.
Sponsors: Rep. Quigley, Mike [D-IL-5]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in the firearms industry and related regulatory enforcement
Estimated Size: 3000000
- Firearms manufacturers will need to update their production processes to comply with new marking regulations.
- Licensed firearms dealers will need to conduct physical inventory checks regularly, impacting their operations.
- The Department of Justice will be tasked with creating and enforcing the new regulations.
- Entities involved in the enforcement of firearm laws and regulations will have increased access to firearms tracing data, impacting their operations.
- Individuals undergoing background checks may be impacted by the longer retention period of records in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System.
Reasoning
- The TRACE Act will mainly affect people involved directly in the firearms industry, such as manufacturers, dealers, and law enforcement agencies. The policy's impact on these groups can range from operational changes to new compliance requirements.
- In a population of 5,000,000 involved with the firearms industry or related enforcement, it's estimated that about 60% are directly employed in roles affected by these new regulations, such as manufacturing technical staff and frontline law enforcement.
- Individuals affected represent a diverse set of roles, with variations in opinion due to differing perceptions of the benefits of enhanced tracing versus operational challenges.
- Budget limitations mean the Department of Justice and enforcement agencies will have to make strategic decisions about resource allocation, focusing initially on major urban areas with high volumes of firearms transactions.
- Personal wellbeing impacts will vary; for some, employment security may increase due to demand for compliance roles, while others face stress due to increased regulatory complexities.
Simulated Interviews
Firearms dealer (Scranton, Pennsylvania)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the need for improved firearms tracing, but the inventory checks will add to my workload significantly without any clear benefit to my business.
- I am worried about possible costs if I have to hire extra help just to comply with the rules.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Firearms manufacturer engineer (Austin, Texas)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The internal serial numbers are a clever idea, but it will require retooling our machines which is costly and time-consuming.
- It's exciting to be part of a change but stressful because delays in compliance could hurt the company financially.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Law enforcement officer (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Access to more detailed firearms tracing information can significantly aid in solving gun-related crimes.
- I'm supportive of the Act because it could streamline how we work on background checks and tracing gun origins.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired veteran and hobbyist firearms collector (Fort Worth, Texas)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The idea of keeping background check records longer doesn't sit well with me, it feels like an invasion of privacy.
- It'll make collecting a bit more complicated, but I understand the intention behind it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Department of Justice supervisor (New York, New York)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Implementing the TRACE Act is a significant step forward for our regulatory framework, giving us a clearer picture of firearms distribution.
- This policy will undoubtedly require careful planning to maximize impact without overspending.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Gun rights activist (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm skeptical of TRACE; it seems like a slippery slope to more government control over gun ownership.
- However, tracing data could help legal owners if their guns are stolen.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Firearms dealer (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The TRACE Act introduces necessary regulations but could overextend small business resources.
- I need to ensure legal compliance without sacrificing profitability or customer service.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Firearms factory line worker (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Age: 40 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am worried about job displacement as compliance could push us toward more automation.
- It's an uncertain time but also an opportunity to learn new skills.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Gun show event coordinator (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased traceability might deter some vendors who fear overregulation.
- We need assurance that these events can still operate smoothly under TRACE regulations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Recent college graduate and new gun owner (Boise, Idaho)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Extending background check records isn't ideal but I understand the need for safety.
- I'll be more careful about who I purchase from.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $4000000, High: $6000000)
Key Considerations
- The TRACE Act primarily affects the firearms industry and regulatory environment rather than generating broader economic impacts.
- Manufacturers and dealers face operational adjustments to comply with new marking and inventory check requirements.
- The Department of Justice will require resources to enforce and manage compliance with these regulations.
- Long-term effects on safety from enhanced tracing visibility are anticipated but hard to measure in economic terms.