Bill Overview
Title: Informed Lawmaking to Combat Inflation Act
Description: This bill requires the Congressional Budget Office to provide inflation estimates for certain legislation that is projected to cause an annual gross budgetary effect of at least 0.25% of the projected gross domestic product of the United States. The estimates must determine whether the legislation will have no significant impact on inflation, a quantifiable inflationary impact on the consumer price index, or a significant impact on inflation that cannot be quantified at the time the estimate is prepared. The requirement does not apply to legislation that (1) provides for emergency assistance or relief at the request of any state, local, or tribal government; or (2) is necessary for the national security or the ratification or implementation of international treaty obligations.
Sponsors: Rep. Katko, John [R-NY-24]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by inflation in the United States
Estimated Size: 331000000
- The bill primarily impacts the U.S. legislative process by requiring specific inflation estimates for bills with significant gross budgetary effects.
- This has potential indirect effects on the general population of the U.S. as it influences economic policies that affect inflation.
- Since inflation affects the cost of living, the bill indirectly impacts all U.S. residents by potentially altering legislative priorities and outcomes in a way that considers inflationary impacts.
- The bill specifically targets legislation that exceeds 0.25% of the U.S. GDP in terms of budgetary effect, which means it affects large-scale legislative actions.
Reasoning
- The policy aims to introduce more informed legislative decisions with potential inflation impacts into the process. This doesn't directly affect people's daily lives, but it changes how large-scale economic decisions are made, potentially influencing inflation trends that impact individuals.
- Given the indirect nature of the policy's impact, many people might not perceive an immediate or significant change in their personal well-being. The effects will largely depend on how legislation is shaped or avoided because of these inflationary considerations.
- Inflation affects everyone by changing the cost of living, but this policy impacts it only through high-level legislative processes. The general public might notice trends in economic stability or changes in consumer prices as indirect outcomes.
- The budget constraints of implementing the policy revolve around hiring experts, conducting economic studies, and establishing protocols within the legislative body for these reports.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York City, NY)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I appreciate any measure that aims to stabilize inflation.
- This policy seems procedural but might make a difference if it ensures thorough economic impact analysis.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (Dallas, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Lower inflation could help keep my operating costs more predictable.
- If this helps prevent recession-inducing legislation, I'm for it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Teacher (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If experts see high inflation risk in a bill, it's sensible to block it.
- I hope this results in better funding decisions for public services.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Inflation is a constant worry in retirement.
- Anything likely to moderate inflationary trends is worth considering.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Software Engineer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could be a useful check against rash economic decisions.
- Positive that it won't affect tech regulation, but cautious about economic impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Healthcare Worker (Portland, OR)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A more informed approach might prevent healthcare cuts.
- Inflation adjustments should consider frontline workers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Logistics Manager (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Ensuring new policies don't exacerbate inflation is critical.
- Could make supply chain planning easier if inflation is stable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Freelance Writer (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 17/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sometimes inflation risk isn't evident upfront, so this is helpful.
- Might encourage thoughtful consideration of housing legislation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Truck Driver (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy should help stop bad legislation before it starts.
- Lowering inflation directly affects my take-home pay.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
PhD Candidate (Boston, MA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's reassuring to know significant inflation risks would be assessed.
- Academic interest in the practical application of such policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $12000000)
Year 2: $12000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $14000000)
Year 3: $12000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $14000000)
Year 5: $13000000 (Low: $11000000, High: $15000000)
Year 10: $14000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $16000000)
Year 100: $20000000 (Low: $18000000, High: $22000000)
Key Considerations
- The effectiveness of this policy is contingent upon the accuracy and acceptance of the CBO's inflation assessments.
- There may be political challenges in the implementation as the results could be used to support or oppose certain legislation.
- The real impact on inflation and legislative efficiency may not be immediately visible, requiring a longer perspective for evaluation.
- Coordination with other economic agencies will be essential to provide comprehensive and accurate inflation assessments.