Bill Overview
Title: Saudi Arabia Legitimate Self Defense Act
Description: This bill imposes restrictions on exports of defense services for maintaining or servicing U.S.-provided aircraft belonging to Saudi Arabian military units conducting offensive airstrikes in Yemen. Specifically, the President may not authorize (and must suspend authorizations issued before this bill's enactment) exporting such defense services for aircraft that, in the preceding year, have undertaken offensive airstrikes in Yemen not directly related to preventing or degrading the ability of Houthi (Ansar Allah) to launch missile and unmanned aircraft strikes on the territory of Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. This restriction shall be in effect for two years starting from this bill's enactment. The Department of State must report quarterly to Congress on airstrikes by the Saudi Air Force in Yemen, including (1) information about strikes in the past three months that the U.S. government considers to be legitimate self-defense, internal security, or for preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; (2) information about strikes that do not meet such criteria; and (3) a certification that the State Department is investigating any indications that U.S.-sourced defense articles are not being used against anything other than legitimate military targets in Yemen.
Sponsors: Rep. Malinowski, Tom [D-NJ-7]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals in Yemen impacted by Saudi airstrikes
Estimated Size: 0
- The bill targets military actions by Saudi Arabian forces, specifically their use of U.S.-provided aircraft in Yemen. It restricts defense service exports for offensive airstrikes not related to self-defense against Houthi attacks.
- This legislation primarily impacts the Saudi Arabian military, limiting their ability to use certain U.S. defense services for aircraft used in Yemen.
- Yemeni civilians are indirectly impacted because the bill seeks to reduce non-defensive airstrikes, potentially decreasing civilian casualties caused by Saudi airstrikes.
- The United States defense industry may experience a minor economic impact due to reduced sales and services exports to Saudi Arabia for specific military operations.
- U.S. foreign policy is impacted as the bill reflects U.S. legislative actions influencing the conduct of international allies in armed conflicts.
Reasoning
- This policy primarily impacts Saudi Arabia's military actions and has indirect effects on various stakeholders, including U.S. defense workers and policymakers.
- Within the U.S., the most directly affected individuals would be those working in industries related to defense exports, specifically in services for military aircrafts. The policy may result in reduced business opportunities.
- We aim to simulate a variety of U.S. citizens from different demographics to understand potential indirect effects on their wellbeing.
- The target population in Yemen, while not directly part of this simulation, is likely to be heavily impacted by the restrictions on Saudi airstrikes.
Simulated Interviews
Aerospace Engineer (Fort Worth, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think it's important to ensure our defense exports are not contributing to unnecessary harm, but I worry about job security and company profits.
- While the policy aims at reducing civilian harm, it might also impact the revenues leading to tightening budgets in my department.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a step in the right direction for U.S. foreign policy, balancing defense interests with humanitarian goals.
- The policy may improve U.S. image internationally which aligns with my career goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Defense Contractor Executive (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The government needs to weigh the economic implications of these policies carefully; our contracts help sustain many jobs.
- I support humanitarian concerns but feel there was not enough consultation with industry stakeholders.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Graduate Student (New York, New York)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm glad to see actions being taken to reduce harm caused by foreign military actions involving U.S. resources.
- Such policies may pave the way for more responsible international partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Army Colonel (Detroit, Michigan)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- In my view, any reduction in misuse of military resources is beneficial, but we need to ensure our allies remain strong.
- I'm encouraged by efforts that align military capabilities with genuine self-defense requirements.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
International Business Consultant (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this as a move towards greater accountability, but it could make business operations more complicated temporarily.
- My clients are concerned about how this policy shift might affect their ventures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Supply Chain Manager (Houston, Texas)
Age: 37 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our industry might see reduced orders, leading to adjustments in our supply chain processes.
- Concerned about maintaining smooth operations amidst policy changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Journalist (Boston, Massachusetts)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy provides important insights into U.S.'s stance on global military ethics.
- I anticipate more transparent reporting which will help in accurate dissemination of information to the public.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Teacher (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I don't feel directly impacted, policies like this do shape the world my students will inherit.
- Good to see priorities on reducing harm in conflict zones.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Financial Analyst (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might cause short-term volatility in defense stocks, which we're monitoring closely.
- Expect adjustments in market forecasts based on international policy impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $3000000 (Low: $2500000, High: $3500000)
Year 2: $3000000 (Low: $2500000, High: $3500000)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The administrative burden of quarterly reporting on airstrikes by the Saudi Air Force.
- The diplomatic repercussions on U.S.-Saudi relations might arise, affecting broader trade agreements.
- There is a focused impact on a specific segment of the defense industry, but broader market impacts are limited.
- The policy's international implications, especially regarding U.S. involvement in Middle East conflicts.