Bill Overview
Title: Ethiopia Stabilization, Peace, and Democracy Act
Description: This bill imposes sanctions and addresses other issues related to the conflict in Ethiopia. The President must impose property-blocking sanctions (and visa-blocking sanctions in the case of an individual) against a foreign entity or individual that has taken certain actions to expand or extend the civil war or other conflicts in Ethiopia. The bill prohibits assistance, with certain exceptions, to Ethiopia's security forces unless the Department of State certifies to Congress that Ethiopia's government has ceased all military operations associated with the civil war and met other specified conditions. The Department of the Treasury must instruct U.S. representatives at international financial institutions to oppose, with some exceptions, such institutions providing loans or assistance to the governments of Ethiopia or Eritrea. Furthermore, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation may not provide certain support for projects in Ethiopia. These restrictions must terminate after the State Department certifies that certain conditions, such as a cessation of military operations associated with the civil war in Ethiopia, have been met. The President may provide support for activities necessary to preserve evidence of atrocities in Ethiopia and to pursue accountability for such atrocities. Within 90 days of this bill's enactment, the State Department must report to Congress a determination of whether actions in Ethiopia by the armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front, and other armed actors constitute genocide, war crimes, or crimes against humanity.
Sponsors: Rep. Malinowski, Tom [D-NJ-7]
Target Audience
Population: Citizens of Ethiopia
Estimated Size: 250000
- The bill targets those involved in the current conflict in Ethiopia, including Ethiopian and Eritrean armed forces, as well as the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front.
- Citizens of Ethiopia are directly affected due to potential economic sanctions and restricted international aid, which could impact public services and economic stability.
- Eritreans might also be indirectly affected through the sanctions and opposition to international financial assistance, impacting their government's ability to fund operations or public services.
- Sanctions could affect entities globally, as any foreign entity involved in extending or expanding the conflict would be subject to sanctions.
- The bill has implications for international financial institutions, as they are instructed to withhold loan assistance to Ethiopia and Eritrea under current conditions.
- The prohibition of assistance to Ethiopian security forces affects military and defense sectors, impacting their operations.
Reasoning
- The Ethiopian American population numbers over 250,000, making them a significant group potentially affected by this policy. This includes both direct emotional impacts due to family ties and potential economic impacts if they are involved in business with Ethiopia.
- U.S. citizens working with Ethiopian entities may represent a smaller subset, but their operational reality could be affected by sanctions and restrictions on international financial assistance.
- Notably, international aid organizations could face operations challenges affecting broader humanitarian efforts, which might indirectly impact global wellbeing through Ethiopia's situation. However, U.S.-based organizations must comply with these sanctions, perhaps shifting their focus or finding new means for support.
- Globally, any foreign entity or individual involved with the Ethiopian conflict who comes into contact with the U.S. financial system may be at risk for sanctions, making this an international concern though not directly impactful on U.S. individual wellbeing except through broader geopolitical stability concerns.
Simulated Interviews
NGO Program Director (Washington, DC)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the need for sanctions to promote peace, but I worry about how it may affect our projects.
- This might mean our work in Ethiopia gets harder, which stresses me as the director of operations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Ethiopian American Small Business Owner (Minneapolis, MN)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could restrict my business imports if the situation worsens, impacting livelihood.
- I feel anxious yet hopeful it will promote stability for future trade.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
International Relations Professor (New York, NY)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions are needed, but I worry about over-reliance on punitive measures.
- There's always concern it could harm civilians more indirectly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Human Rights Advocate (Portland, OR)
Age: 36 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill aligns with my advocacy goals, potentially pushing for better human rights compliance in Ethiopia.
- Concerned over whether sanctions could prolong suffering without quick political change.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Financial Analyst (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions can stabilize situations long-term but short-term economic impacts are worrisome.
- Markets are unpredictable with sanction risks, and that's stressful for planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Graduate Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 26 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Interesting case to study, but worried about real human implications of these sanctions.
- May affect my research and future career in NGOs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Healthcare Administrator (Dallas, TX)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My concern is how this might delay aid essential for health projects in the region, possibly risking more lives.
- Overall well-planned, but healthcare shouldn't be collateral damage.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Small Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in imports and costs could affect my margins significantly.
- Steady supply chains are crucial for my small business to thrive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Critical to balance conflict resolution with economic stability in such regions.
- Our firm's engagement with the region might face hurdles, impacting future projects.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired Diplomat (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Ethiopia's situation needs external pressure to promote peace but risks increasing internal hardship.
- It's about balance, ensuring sanctions target those responsible without causing too much harm to civilians.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Implementation of sanctions requires continuous monitoring and global cooperation to ensure effectiveness.
- Determination of humanitarian conditions is subjective and could change the course of sanctions or support agreements.
- International financial entities may face diplomatic challenges due to directive constraints against Ethiopian and Eritrean loans or financial assistance.