Bill Overview
Title: Inflation Prevention Act
Description: This bill establishes a point of order that, when the annualized rate of inflation exceeds 4.5%, prohibits the House and Senate from considering legislation that provides new budget authority and is estimated to result in an increase to the rate of inflation. The prohibition may be waived in the Senate by an affirmative vote of three-fifths of the Senate.
Sponsors: Rep. Garcia, Mike [R-CA-25]
Target Audience
Population: All individuals affected by inflation
Estimated Size: 331000000
- Inflation affects the cost of goods and services, impacting consumers worldwide. Hence, the global population affected by inflation is large.
- This bill targets government actions in the United States, so its immediate primary impact is on U.S. residents.
- The prevention measures are designed to restrict federal actions that might lead to inflation, indirectly impacting those dependent on U.S. economic policies.
- All residents in the U.S. are indirectly affected by inflation and governmental measures to control it, thus making them a key target for this bill.
Reasoning
- To simulate the interview responses, I considered a diverse number of personas spanning different ages, occupations, and lifestyles to reflect various impacts of inflation policy across the US population.
- Each simulated persona has a Cantril wellbeing score representing their current life satisfaction before policy implementation and how it changes with and without the policy.
- I ensured to include individuals who are economically vulnerable and directly impacted by inflation (e.g., low-income families, retirees) and those who might see less direct effects (e.g., high-income earners), to see varying levels of policy impact.
- Given the policy aims to control legislation that would increase inflation during times when it is already high, I simulate increased wellbeing for individuals who are vulnerable to inflation impacts if the policy is successfully implemented.
Simulated Interviews
Corporate Manager (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe controlling inflation is crucial.
- If inflation continues unchecked, luxury goods and property values may surge unreasonably.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (Austin, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a business owner, stability in costs is essential.
- This policy might prevent laws that drive up operating costs due to inflation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Retired Teacher (Miami, FL)
Age: 70 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- On a fixed income, controlling inflation is critically important.
- Medical costs could become unbearable without checks on inflation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 3 |
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The cost of living increases with inflation, affecting life plans significantly.
- If inflation is controlled, I might be able to purchase a home sooner.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 4 |
Freelance Graphic Designer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 54 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The unpredictability of costs due to inflation adds stress to my budget planning.
- Mitigating inflation is key to reducing the burden on fluctuating income.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 3 |
Farmer (Rural Alabama)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Agricultural costs fluctuate with inflation, impacting my business.
- Policies to control this keep farm operations sustainable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 2 |
Primary School Teacher (Seattle, WA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a single parent, any increase in inflation can affect my children's education and living standards significantly.
- A policy that can curtail inflationary legislation would provide some relief.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 3 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 2 |
Healthcare worker (Denver, CO)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Healthcare costs can skyrocket with inflation, affecting both my work and personal life.
- I welcome any measure that can manage inflation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 3 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Inflation can affect investments and operational costs.
- I monitor such policies closely for potential impacts on ventures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Retail Worker (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm highly vulnerable to rising cost of living.
- This policy could maintain affordability in essentials if implemented successfully.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 2 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 2 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 2: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $5000000)
Year 3: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $5000000)
Year 5: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $5000000)
Year 10: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $5000000)
Year 100: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $5000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill serves as a procedural mechanism, not directly affecting fiscal outlay or revenue.
- Its enforcement would require enhanced analytical measures to ensure compliance with the inflation threshold trigger.
- Long-term impacts on inflation and economic stability are speculative and dependent on enforcement and economic conditions.