Bill Overview
Title: STAND with Taiwan Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the imposition of sanctions in the event of a military invasion of Taiwan by China and addresses related issues. If the President determines that China or any of its proxies has initiated a military invasion of Taiwan, or if a joint resolution making such a determination is enacted, the bill requires the President to impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions on any foreign person who is a member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP); the Department of the Treasury to impose property-blocking sanctions on specified foreign financial institutions, including the People's Bank of China and the China Construction Bank; Treasury to impose property-blocking sanctions on any entity affiliated with the CCP; the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to prohibit the trading of the securities of an issuer affiliated with the CCP on a national securities exchange; Treasury to prohibit U.S. financial institutions from making certain investments, such as investments in an entity owned or controlled by the CCP or China's military; and the prohibition of the importation of certain goods, including goods produced wholly or in part in China or by certain entities owned or financed by the CCP. Furthermore, a depository institution or an SEC-registered securities broker or dealer may not process funds transfers (1) to or from China, or (2) for the benefit of CCP members. The bill provides various waivers and exceptions to the required sanctions and prohibitions, such as an exception for certain U.S. intelligence activities.
Sponsors: Rep. Gallagher, Mike [R-WI-8]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals affected by sanctions imposed on China due to military action against Taiwan
Estimated Size: 20000000
- The bill focuses on sanctioning Chinese Communist Party members and entities affiliated with them, which points to a substantial number of individuals associated with the CCP possibly numbering in the millions.
- Financial institutions in China, such as the People's Bank of China, which employ thousands of individuals, would be affected by financial sanctions.
- Any business entities involved with or controlled by the CCP, and thus the individuals they employ, would be affected, impacting millions globally who purchase or work with Chinese goods.
- A military invasion of Taiwan would have ripple effects impacting the Taiwanese population and their economic environment.
- Global consumers and businesses relying on Chinese goods could be affected due to prohibitions on certain imports.
- U.S. financial institutions and investors involved in transactions or investments with China could also be impacted.
- The bill's sanctions are intended as a deterrent and might never actually be enacted, hence the population directly affected could be speculatively high or zero depending on political developments.
Reasoning
- The U.S. population likely to be directly affected includes investors, consumers, financial professionals, and those employed in sectors heavily reliant on Chinese imports or financial interactions.
- Not all Americans will be directly affected, as impact varies widely by industry, location, and individual circumstances.
- The policy could potentially raise prices for consumer goods and disrupt supply chains, affecting general well-being.
- Wellbeing scores prior to the policy reflect current economic conditions; post-policy scores will consider specific impacts such as job security, cost of living, and investment outcomes.
- The policy's ramifications, while potentially significant to some, would not uniformly impact all individuals given the targeted nature of the sanctions.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York City, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm quite worried about the impact these sanctions would have on our investments.
- China has been a major player in our portfolio, and this could mean re-strategizing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 9 |
Tech Company Employee (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our company would face significant challenges if we could no longer work with our Chinese partners.
- I'm concerned about what that means for my job and the industry as a whole.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Auto Industry Supplier (Detroit, MI)
Age: 50 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could mean higher costs for parts, which would hurt our profit margins.
- It's nerve-wracking to think what this might do to our business stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 9 |
E-commerce retailer (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could make it much more difficult to import and sell my products.
- The increased costs might mean losing customers or even having to shut down my store.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Energy markets are sensitive to geopolitical changes, which this policy could exacerbate.
- I'm concerned about how the sanctions might affect the global energy landscape and our operations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Investment Banker (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions would make my job significantly more challenging.
- It's going to require a lot of adjustments in our investment strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 10 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our startup could face complications due to its ties with China.
- I'm nervous about the long-term implications for my job and company growth.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
International Trade Specialist (Miami, FL)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could seriously impact trade flow and thus my job security.
- It's a big concern for someone whose career is built around international trade.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Retail Manager (Chicago, IL)
Age: 47 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions would make it difficult to maintain our supply chain as it is now.
- Pricing might have to increase, possibly driving away customers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Import/Export Business Owner (Dallas, TX)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the severe hit to my business operations.
- The sanctions could force us to find new sources, which is easier said than done.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Year 2: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 3: $1500000000 (Low: $1200000000, High: $1800000000)
Year 5: $1800000000 (Low: $1440000000, High: $2160000000)
Year 10: $2000000000 (Low: $1600000000, High: $2400000000)
Year 100: $5000000000 (Low: $4000000000, High: $6000000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill may act as a deterrent and if successful, would not incur the projected costs, but given the geopolitical tension, preparing for cost implementation is prudent.
- Potential impact on U.S.-China relations could lead to further economic and political repercussions, necessitating additional diplomatic and economic strategies.
- Sanctions could trigger retaliatory measures by China, affecting various sectors of the U.S. economy.