Bill Overview
Title: To amend the International Financial Institutions Act to provide instructions with respect to the U.S. policy on co-financing arrangements at the multilateral development banks, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill requires U.S. representatives to vote against any program or project at a multilateral development bank (e.g., the World Bank) that includes joint or parallel financing provided by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) unless the Department of the Treasury certifies that the AIIB (1) has the authority and resources to provide grants and concessional assistance to countries eligible to borrow from the International Development Association on terms similar to those provided to these countries by the International Development Association, and (2) has a demonstrated history of providing such assistance to these countries.
Sponsors: Rep. Torres, Ritchie [D-NY-15]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals in countries eligible for International Development Assistance
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The bill targets multilateral development banks, which notably finance infrastructure and development projects globally, often focusing on developing countries.
- Countries eligible to borrow from the International Development Association (IDA) are typically low-income countries. Therefore, populations in these countries will be deeply impacted, as they rely on concessional loans and grants to finance development projects.
- The AIIB is increasingly involved in co-financing projects globally, and its exclusion or conditional participation could redirect or withhold critical financial resources. This affects projects in low-income countries that need financial assistance for essential infrastructures such as roads, schools, and hospitals.
- The influence of U.S. policy on multilateral banks through this bill could alter the financing landscape, potentially leading to fewer collaborative projects with emerging lenders like the AIIB.
- The global population impacted includes all countries eligible for IDA assistance, representing about 75 countries worldwide, mostly in Africa and Asia.
Reasoning
- This policy primarily affects international infrastructure financing. Key impacts on U.S. citizens arise from shifts in foreign policy influence and business opportunities in international development projects. The AIIB's involvement, or lack thereof, changes the dynamics in how projects are funded, which could perceive changes in international relations and commercial engagements, potentially impacting certain U.S. sectors indirectly.
- It's essential to consider a mix of individuals who are directly involved in international development aspects and those indirectly impacted through employment or business opportunities. Furthermore, considering various U.S. geographical and occupational representations is crucial for understanding indirect impacts on wellbeing attributes of the population.
Simulated Interviews
Government employee (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy attempts to ensure responsible financial collaboration.
- Restricting AIIB involvement might give us better control of how funds are utilized, potentially improving conditions for countries that truly need it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
International business executive (California)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I have concerns that this policy might limit partnership potentials.
- Our business could face restrictions in project bids if AIIB is barred from partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Professor of International Relations (Texas)
Age: 52 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy creates a stringent check on AIIB’s operating procedures.
- While it may strengthen accountability, there's a risk of alienating new financing options for developing nations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Financial analyst (New York)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The limitation on AIIB could signal geopolitical tension.
- Diversifying financing partners might aid global growth more sustainably.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Factory worker (Michigan)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don’t see how this affects my day-to-day life.
- International bank decisions seem far removed from my concerns.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Retired (Illinois)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Restricting AIIB could drive projects to reliable paths, like traditional banks.
- However, new financial partnerships should also be nurtured.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Graduate Student (Boston)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This law could affect where and how students like me should focus our studies.
- Growing influence of non-western banks in development finance might be stunted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Entrepreneur (Florida)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- International development finance shapes new market opportunities.
- Strategic partnerships in development are crucial for trade scalability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Engineer (Oregon)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There may be fewer projects if financing avenues tighten.
- Fewer projects mean less work for engineers like me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
NGO manager (Georgia)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More financing restrictions could mean fewer resources directed at sustainable efforts.
- Governments and global entities should foster, not limit, collaborative resources.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $3000000)
Year 2: $2100000 (Low: $1050000, High: $3150000)
Year 3: $2200000 (Low: $1100000, High: $3300000)
Year 5: $2500000 (Low: $1250000, High: $3750000)
Year 10: $3000000 (Low: $1500000, High: $4500000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $2500000, High: $7500000)
Key Considerations
- Diplomatic relations with countries favoring or aligned with AIIB could be affected, altering international collaborations.
- The bill may shift the balance of influence among international financial institutions, integrating U.S. policies with broader geopolitical strategies.
- Effectiveness depends on the transparency and efficiency of the Treasury's certification process.