Bill Overview
Title: To amend the International Financial Institutions Act to instruct certain United States Executive Directors to vote against any assistance to the People's Republic of China unless certain certifications are met, and for other purposes.
Description: This bill requires U.S. representatives to certain international financial institutions to vote and advocate against the institutions providing assistance to China unless the Department of the Treasury makes certain certifications to Congress. Specifically, Treasury must order U.S. representatives to the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank to oppose the relevant institution providing assistance to China unless Treasury certifies that (1) China's government (and any lenders it owns or controls) has credibly committed to taking certain actions, such as participating in multilateral debt relief initiatives on terms at least comparable to other Group of 20 governments; and (2) the assistance to China contributes significantly to a global public good that serves U.S. national interests, such as limiting the negative impacts of climate change.
Sponsors: Rep. Waters, Maxine [D-CA-43]
Target Audience
Population: People in China benefiting from international financial assistance
Estimated Size: 10000000
- International Financial Institutions currently provide development assistance to China.
- The bill aims to restrict assistance to China unless certain conditions are met, likely reducing financial aid flows.
- China, as a recipient of this aid, might face reduced funding for development projects which could impact its economy and population.
- Chinese citizens benefiting from projects funded by international aid may be directly affected.
- U.S. contributors to these institutions may see changes in fund allocations as a result of the bill.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily impacts international financial relations and aid allocation rather than direct domestic programs.
- Effects on individuals residing in the U.S. could stem from indirect economic changes, or shifts in diplomatic and trade dynamics.
- Affected groups include those involved in international finance, diplomacy, or related industries, as well as possibly affecting average consumers through broader economic implications.
- Most U.S. citizens may remain unaffected directly, though some with connections to China (e.g., business or family ties) might experience knock-on effects.
Simulated Interviews
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am concerned about how this policy could disrupt the financial markets and the balance of investments.
- Restricting aid could impact China's economy, which in turn would affect global markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Trade restrictions or financial tensions with China could complicate my business operations.
- I hope for negotiation and cooperation rather than confrontation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
University Professor (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy can serve as a strategic move to advance U.S. interests but might also strain diplomatic ties.
- It's important for the U.S. to find a balance between assertiveness and cooperation with China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This legislation could indirectly affect the energy sector's global strategy and operations.
- I believe long-term engagement is necessary even if it requires tough stances.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Small Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am worried about potential costs and import restrictions impacting my business.
- I hope there will be more clarity on trade policies going forward.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Aid Worker (Seattle, WA)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may encourage China to adopt more cooperative debt relief strategies.
- However, it could hinder necessary funding if not managed carefully.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Manufacturing Plant Manager (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about potential supply chain issues and tariffs affecting production costs.
- Collaboration with China is crucial for manufacturing in the U.S.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Graduate Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I find the policy an interesting case study on international diplomacy and economic policy.
- It could become a significant discussion point in international economics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Logistics Coordinator (San Diego, CA)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about how new policies might complicate our logistics and affect delivery schedules.
- The uncertainty could increase costs and impact my job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Diplomatic Advisor (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a bold stance and could reshape diplomatic conversations.
- Balancing national interests with international cooperation is critical.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)
Year 2: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)
Year 3: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)
Year 5: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)
Year 10: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)
Year 100: $1000000 (Low: $500000, High: $2000000)
Key Considerations
- The bill might complicate U.S.-China relations, impacting trade and cooperation on global issues.
- Implementation will require ongoing monitoring and certification by U.S. Treasury, incurring administrative costs.
- Potential reaction by China, including retaliatory measures, could create economic ripples affecting U.S. sectors reliant on collaboration with China.