Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6469

Bill Overview

Title: Refund the Police Act of 2022

Description: This bill authorizes the Bureau of Justice Assistance within the Department of Justice to make grants to state and local governments for the same purposes as grants under the Community Oriented Policing Services Program. To be eligible for a grant, a state or local government must certify that it does not have a law requiring a heighted standard for use of force and has taken steps to expand efforts to hire and retain law enforcement officers, and has not taken steps to eliminate drive-by shootings as a basis for first degree murder.

Sponsors: Rep. Herrera Beutler, Jaime [R-WA-3]

Target Audience

Population: People living in the United States

Estimated Size: 339000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Police Officer (Baltimore, MD)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe this policy will help us hire more officers, which is desperately needed.
  • There are concerns about over-policing, but we engage often with our community, so I think we can handle it positively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 6 3

Community Activist (Austin, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried this policy doesn't address the need for police reform.
  • More officers doesn't necessarily mean safer communities, especially for minorities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 3 4

Local Government Official (Bismarck, ND)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will benefit communities like ours with limited resources for policing.
  • I am optimistic it will lead to reduced crime rates.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 6 3

College Student (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 22 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried this could lead to more stop and frisks in my community.
  • It feels like this policy is ignoring the reasons behind police reform movements.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 3 4
Year 5 3 4
Year 10 3 4
Year 20 3 4

Small Business Owner (Detroit, MI)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I hope this can decrease crime in my neighborhood.
  • Increased police presence could help but needs to be fair and just.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 4

Bartender (New Orleans, LA)

Age: 27 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I feel safer knowing they might hire more officers.
  • I just hope this doesn't mean they give up on community policing efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Retired Teacher (Seattle, WA)

Age: 67 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I fear that this could lead to more aggressive policing tactics.
  • Our community needs more social services, not just more police.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 5

Software Engineer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think more police is the answer here.
  • This policy could ignore the real issues with police use of force.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 3 4

Police Department Clerk (Tucson, AZ)

Age: 41 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This should help offset the staffing shortages we've been facing.
  • I do worry it may lead to less accountability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 4

Farmer (Rural Kentucky)

Age: 58 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 20/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It might help some communities, but I'm not sure it will reach us out here.
  • There are other priorities than just more policing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 4

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $250000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $300000000)

Year 2: $255000000 (Low: $205000000, High: $310000000)

Year 3: $260000000 (Low: $210000000, High: $320000000)

Year 5: $270000000 (Low: $220000000, High: $340000000)

Year 10: $300000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $380000000)

Year 100: $400000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $500000000)

Key Considerations