Bill Overview
Title: Gathering and Reporting Assessments Yielding Zero Overlooked Nefarious Efforts Act
Description: This bill requires the National Intelligence Council to produce a National Intelligence Estimate (a type of intelligence community assessment) on the gray zone activities of foreign adversaries and addresses other related issues. Under this bill, a gray zone activity is an activity to advance a foreign state's interests that (1) falls between ordinary statecraft and open warfare, (2) is designed to maximize the advancement of such interests without provoking a U.S. kinetic military response, and (3) falls on a spectrum ranging from covert adversary operations to open adversary operations. The National Intelligence Estimate must analyze (1) how foreign adversaries use gray zone activities to advance interests, (2) what responses from the United States (or U.S. allies and partners) would tend to result in the escalation or de-escalation of such gray zone activities, and (3) any opportunities for the United States to minimize the extent that foreign adversaries can use such activities in furtherance of great power competition. The council must submit the estimate to Congress and make an unclassified version of key findings publicly available on the website of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The council must also develop a lexicon (with definitions) of common terms for concepts associated with gray zone activities. The ODNI must publish an unclassified report containing the lexicon.
Sponsors: Rep. Krishnamoorthi, Raja [D-IL-8]
Target Audience
Population: Global population, particularly individuals in countries targeted by gray zone activities
Estimated Size: 331000000
- The bill aims to analyze gray zone activities, which are actions by foreign adversaries that fall between regular diplomatic efforts and open warfare.
- The analysis will impact the way the U.S. and possibly its allies respond to these gray zone activities, ultimately affecting global geopolitical dynamics.
- Control or mitigation of gray zone activities may alter the balance of international power and security, which has the potential to impact global populations.
Reasoning
- The policy aims at better understanding and potentially mitigating covert actions by foreign adversaries, which can strengthen national security and influence public perception.
- Given the focus on intelligence analysis, this policy is more likely to indirectly impact the general populace by altering foreign and domestic policy, rather than having direct effects on individuals' daily wellbeing.
- Many Americans might not immediately perceive personal impacts, though improved national security can lead to a generalized sense of safety and confidence in governmental actions.
Simulated Interviews
Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could lead to a more informed strategy regarding threats.
- Publicly available findings might increase transparency and trust in intelligence operations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Security is important, but transparency in these reports must be ensured.
- This could lead to better cybersecurity measures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Veteran (Dallas, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It is crucial to stay ahead of foreign threats.
- The policy might help in upgrading defense strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Journalist (New York, NY)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might increase the public's understanding of foreign affairs.
- There is also worry about potential government overreach.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Academic Researcher (Chicago, IL)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This can provide valuable insights for academic research.
- Hopefully, it bridges understanding between policy makers and the public.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Educator (Boston, MA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- An educated public needs access to truthful information.
- The policy may fill knowledge gaps in historical context around conflicts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Enhanced security could stabilize international business environments.
- Clarity over gray zone activities might offer early warning for businesses.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Public Policy Consultant (Miami, FL)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Accurate intelligence assessment aids in better policy making.
- Potential to improve crisis response strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
College Student (Seattle, WA)
Age: 23 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could enrich academic resources and discussions.
- Concern over the balance of sensitivity and public access of information.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Policy Advisor (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is a strategic step in countering foreign influence.
- However, it must be adequately funded to maintain efficacy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $9000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $10000000)
Year 2: $9500000 (Low: $8500000, High: $10500000)
Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $9000000, High: $11000000)
Year 5: $11000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $12000000)
Year 10: $13000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $14000000)
Year 100: $18000000 (Low: $16000000, High: $20000000)
Key Considerations
- Coordination between various intelligence agencies to produce the National Intelligence Estimate.
- The need for both classified and unclassified documentation requires careful handling to protect national security interests while ensuring transparency.
- Budget considerations for the initial implementation and continuing updates to the assessments and reports as international conditions change.