Bill Overview
Title: Arm Taiwan Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the Department of Defense (DOD) to establish the Taiwan Security Assistance Initiative to accelerate Taiwan's deployment of asymmetric defense capabilities to the level required to deter or defeat an invasion by China. From FY2023 through FY2027, the bill requires DOD to use appropriations provided for the initiative to provide assistance to accelerate Taiwan's asymmetric defense capabilities so that Taiwan, with limited initial U.S. Armed Forces support, is able to (1) delay, degrade, and deny attempts by China's army to enter or transit the Taiwan Strait (and adjoining seas) or seize control of key territory in Taiwan; and (2) prevent China from neutralizing or rendering ineffective Taiwan's government. The bill imposes certain requirements related to such assistance, such as periodic certifications by DOD to Congress that Taiwan's government has committed to (and has made progress toward) increasing defense spending, including a target of spending at least 3% of Taiwan's national gross domestic product on defense on an annual basis by the end of FY2027.
Sponsors: Rep. Gallagher, Mike [R-WI-8]
Target Audience
Population: People in Taiwan
Estimated Size: 8750
- The bill focuses on Taiwan and its ability to defend against China.
- Taiwan has a population of approximately 23 million people.
- The bill aims to enhance Taiwan's security and defense capabilities.
- If Taiwan's government fails, the entire population risks being affected.
- Military preparations and defense are typically state-centric, impacting all citizens in a national defense context.
Reasoning
- The primary impact is on military personnel who might be deployed to assist Taiwan, estimated at less than 5% of the approximately 175,000 stationed overseas; therefore, roughly 8,750 personnel are potentially impacted.
- The budget restrictions suggest the policy's financial impact on individuals in the U.S. is minimal; thus, any impact is likely indirect through military involvement, foreign policy considerations, and defense spending.
- The American public might have varied opinions based on political and strategic views concerning Taiwan and China, but direct self-reported wellbeing impacts are minimal for the general U.S. population.
Simulated Interviews
Navy officer (San Diego, CA)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the strategic importance of Taiwan and am prepared if called upon to support.
- There's always stress related to potential deployments in tense regions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Defense contractor (Houston, TX)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Contracts for defense initiatives like these often mean more work and stability for my company.
- This policy could enhance job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Foreign policy analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies enhancing Taiwan's defense are critical to regional balance.
- There's potential for increased tensions, which worries me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Peace activist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the arms race and potential for conflict escalation.
- We need diplomatic solutions more than ever.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
College student (New York, NY)
Age: 21 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I find the subject of Taiwan and its defense very fascinating for my studies.
- My family's background makes me feel invested in such defense policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Retired teacher (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My main concern is how these military actions affect the wellbeing of veterans.
- Policies focusing on distant conflicts seem disconnected from local veteran needs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Small business owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any instability in Taiwan could disrupt my supply chain heavily.
- I'm hopeful this policy maintains stability in the region.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Journalist (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Covering such policies expands my career opportunities.
- There's always a responsibility to report the broader picture, including risks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Software engineer (Miami, FL)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The stability of Taiwan is crucial for my company's business operations.
- Such policies reassure our clients about their national security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Military spouse (Denver, CO)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like these mean more deployments and uncertainties for families like mine.
- The stress of prolonged separations takes a toll.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $1700000000)
Year 2: $1500000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $1700000000)
Year 3: $1500000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $1700000000)
Year 5: $1500000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $1700000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait could impact global markets and trade.
- Procurement logistics involve significant upfront costs and coordination.
- The initiative aligns with the current U.S.'s strategic aim to deter Chinese military expansion.
- Potential reactions from China, including economic measures or cyber-attacks, could have further implications.