Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6439

Bill Overview

Title: Fentanyl Trafficker Elimination Act

Description: This bill increases the term of imprisonment for drug trafficking offenses involving large quantities of fentanyl or fentanyl analogues. Specifically, the bill requires life imprisonment for illegally importing or exporting, or illegally manufacturing, distributing, dispensing, or possessing with intent to manufacture, distribute, or dispense, 400 grams or more of fentanyl or 100 grams or more of a fentanyl analogue, regardless of prior offenses or if death or serious bodily injury occurs. (Currently, such offenses carry a minimum sentence of 10 years imprisonment and a maximum sentence of life imprisonment for a first offense; penalties increase with subsequent offenses or if death or serious bodily injury occurs.)

Sponsors: Rep. Burchett, Tim [R-TN-2]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in large-scale fentanyl trafficking

Estimated Size: 20000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Drug trafficker (New York, NY)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This law is going to make it impossible for me to continue. The risk is too high now with a mandatory life sentence.
  • It may reduce my personal activities, but others in the network might be willing to take the risk.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 1 3
Year 2 1 3
Year 3 1 3
Year 5 1 3
Year 10 1 2
Year 20 1 2

Community activist (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any law that might reduce the availability of fentanyl on the streets is welcome.
  • I'm cautious about how much this policy will shift organized crime to other drugs and how effectively it's implemented.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 4

Law enforcement officer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 41 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy adds strong deterrents for high-level traffickers, which could help us in enforcement.
  • It might lead to a higher workload initially but pays off if successful long-term.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Defense attorney (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This law could lead to injustices if applied too broadly, impacting low-level offenders harshly.
  • I'm concerned about the strain on the court system and need for procedural fairness.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Pharmaceutical company executive (Houston, TX)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy could indirectly support the market for anti-opioid interventions.
  • It's crucial to combine enforcement with public health strategies to fully address the crisis.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Healthcare worker (Miami, FL)

Age: 26 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Reducing fentanyl on the streets is critical to reducing emergency cases.
  • This law seems like the right step, but enforcement must be robust.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Addiction counselor (Baltimore, MD)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Deterring suppliers could create breathing room for recovery programs.
  • The community needs consistent policy support to tackle addiction.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

University researcher (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 36 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could have significant effects if it reduces availability, but must be studied closely.
  • Collateral social impacts need monitoring to ensure overall wellbeing improvement.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Judge (Newark, NJ)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Mandatory life sentences could burden the system with lengthy trials and appeals.
  • Balancing punitive measures with rehabilitation is key.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Social worker (Seattle, WA)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might help children indirectly by reducing parental drug involvement, but it's not a catch-all solution.
  • Legislative focus should include recovery and support interventions equally.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $200000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $300000000)

Year 2: $210000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $310000000)

Year 3: $220000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $320000000)

Year 5: $240000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $340000000)

Year 10: $300000000 (Low: $200000000, High: $400000000)

Year 100: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2000000000)

Key Considerations