Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6429

Bill Overview

Title: To establish certain protections for members of the Armed Forces who refuse to receive vaccinations against COVID-19, and to increase basic pay for members of the uniformed services.

Description: This bill addresses the COVID-19 vaccine for members of the Armed Forces and basic pay for members of the uniformed services. Specifically, the bill prohibits the use of federal funds to require a member of the Armed Forces to receive a COVID-19 vaccination. The bill also prohibits adverse action (e.g., punishment) being taken against a member of the Armed Forces because the member refuses to receive a COVID-19 vaccination. The bill also increases the rate of monthly basic pay for members of the uniformed services by 2.7% starting on January 1, 2023. Uniformed services means members of the Armed Forces, the commissioned corps of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the commissioned corps of the Public Health Service.

Sponsors: Rep. Miller, Mary E. [R-IL-15]

Target Audience

Population: Members of the uniformed services

Estimated Size: 2200000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Special Forces Operations (Fort Bragg, NC)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think increasing pay helps morale across the board. It's a good thing for service members.
  • I already got vaccinated, so the vaccine part doesn't affect me.
  • I'm supportive of whatever policy leads to better health outcomes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Navy Pilot (San Diego, CA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I didn't want to take the vaccine, so knowing I won't be forced puts my mind at ease.
  • The pay hike is a nice touch, it can alleviate some of my financial worries.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Public Health Officer (Houston, TX)

Age: 26 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More pay is always welcome, and I already believe in the positive impacts of vaccination.
  • This increase will help me manage student loans better.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Coast Guard Officer (Washington, DC)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm nearing retirement, and the pay increase is beneficial for my pension.
  • The vaccine policies wouldn't change anything for me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Navy Reservist (Norfolk, VA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I dislike being told what to do with the vaccine, so it's good that I have a choice now.
  • I'm relieved by the pay raise, as my civilian job doesn't pay much.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

NOAA Officer (Anchorage, AK)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I focus more on my career duties, and having more income is important as I start out.
  • The vaccination aspect doesn't bother me much.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Army Logistics Officer (Fort Hood, TX)

Age: 31 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm a bit concerned about relaxation in vaccination requirements.
  • The pay raise is needed as cost of living increases, even while reserving.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Air Force Nurse (San Antonio, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's great that pay continues to rise, though I worry about potential vaccination impacts on military health.
  • Ready to support health initiatives in any capacity we have.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Marine Engineer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm anxious about COVID exposures—more vaccination helps overall.
  • I'm satisfied with the pay increase though, it will help with bills.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Retired Naval Officer (Honolulu, HI)

Age: 55 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 1/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm interested to see how this affects those still in service.
  • Personally, my wellbeing isn't impacted directly by these changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $3600000000 (Low: $3400000000, High: $3900000000)

Year 2: $3600000000 (Low: $3400000000, High: $3900000000)

Year 3: $3600000000 (Low: $3400000000, High: $3900000000)

Year 5: $3600000000 (Low: $3400000000, High: $3900000000)

Year 10: $3600000000 (Low: $3400000000, High: $3900000000)

Year 100: $3600000000 (Low: $3400000000, High: $3900000000)

Key Considerations