Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6422

Bill Overview

Title: Putin Accountability Act

Description: This bill imposes sanctions pertaining to Russia and addresses related issues. The President must impose sanctions, with some exceptions, on individuals and entities that knowingly and directly provide specialized financial messaging services to Russia's central bank (or enables access to such services); entities responsible for constructing, financing, or operating Nord Stream 2 (a pipeline constructed to increase Russian natural gas exports) and the corporate officers and controlling shareholders of such entities; individuals and entities in Russia involved in kleptocracy, Russian government activities to subvert U.S. democratic institutions and interests, or Russian government disinformation campaigns against the United States; and entities that are Russian state development corporations, as well as any officials of such an entity. The President must impose property-blocking sanctions on such individuals and entities and also visa-blocking sanctions on the individuals. The President must also (1) issue regulations to prohibit U.S. individuals and entities from dealing in Russian sovereign debt; and (2) issue a determination as to whether certain specified Russian individuals meet the criteria to be subject to sanctions under various authorities, including this bill. The Department of State must (1) designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, and (2) report to Congress a determination of whether Russia-affiliated armed entities in the Donbas region of Ukraine meet the criteria to be designated as foreign terrorist organizations. The bill prohibits expending funds to engage with Russia's government on cyber issues or arms control negotiations until certain conditions have been met.

Sponsors: Rep. Banks, Jim [R-IN-3]

Target Audience

Population: People affiliated with or involved in Russian state activities, financial sectors, and international relations

Estimated Size: 1000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Investment Banker (New York, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the sanctions will introduce a layer of complexity in dealing with Russian assets.
  • In the short-term, we might see increased volatility in related markets, impacting our operations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 8

Policy Analyst (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The Act will impose needed checks on Russian state activities.
  • Long-term effects may improve international relations if successful.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Professor of Political Science (Chicago, IL)

Age: 56 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • These sanctions will make it tricky for academics collaborating on international research linked to Russian institutions.
  • Field research in Russia may face additional bureaucratic hurdles.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 9 9

Oil and Gas Analyst (Houston, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sanctions will likely disrupt energy markets temporarily but may stabilize after a while.
  • The long-term effects on energy prices are uncertain.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

CEO of a Tech Firm (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The sanctions might create barriers for technology export and collaborations with Russian counterparts.
  • Long-term partnerships might have to be reevaluated.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Software Engineer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 31 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the impact will be minimal unless we are directly barred from collaborating with Russian tech firms.
  • Overall, my work might not change significantly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Retired Diplomat (Boston, MA)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sanctions could further strain diplomatic channels.
  • This move might pressure a shift towards more isolated international diplomacy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Financial Consultant (Miami, FL)

Age: 37 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My clients will face increased risk when dealing with Russian investments.
  • We may need to reconsider strategies involving Russian financial instruments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 8

Corporate Lawyer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased sanctions mean more compliance work which is good for business, but it complicates international contracts.
  • The administrative burden will likely increase.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Graduate Student (Austin, TX)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will provide me with new areas of research.
  • In the long run, career opportunities may be influenced by ongoing U.S.-Russia policy dynamics.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)

Year 2: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)

Year 3: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)

Year 5: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)

Year 10: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)

Year 100: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $40000000)

Key Considerations