Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/6417

Bill Overview

Title: Free Peng Shuai Act

Description: This bill directs the President to impose property- and visa-blocking sanctions on any foreign individual associated with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) who has materially assisted China's government in the disappearance of Peng Shuai, including the president of the IOC. (Peng is a Chinese tennis star who raised allegations of sexual coercion against a retired senior Chinese leader.) The sanctions shall not apply to acts related to U.S. intelligence activities. The President may waive application of the sanctions if (1) doing so would be in U.S. national security interests, or (2) Peng has been released and may travel freely and her well-being has been independently confirmed by the U.S. government.

Sponsors: Rep. Gallagher, Mike [R-WI-8]

Target Audience

Population: Foreign individuals associated with the IOC who may be sanctioned

Estimated Size: 0

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Human Rights Activist (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As a human rights activist, I'm encouraged by the U.S. taking a stand on Peng Shuai's behalf.
  • This policy reinforces the importance of global governance in sporting events.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Olympic Games Enthusiast (New York, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy may cause some disruption in the Olympic community, but human rights should be prioritized.
  • I believe the Olympics should remain apolitical, but there must be accountability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Tech Industry Worker (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry about the impact this might have on U.S.-China relations, which could affect my industry.
  • While I support human rights initiatives, I hope this policy is implemented carefully to avoid unnecessary economic fallout.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 7

University Professor (Miami, FL)

Age: 52 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's significant to use diplomatic and economic means for promoting human rights.
  • There's always a risk of further geopolitical tension, but targeted sanctions can send a strong message.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Small Business Owner (Denver, CO)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned that tensions might indirectly affect small business supply chains if there's a broader impact on trade with China.
  • However, supporting human rights is a good thing, and I hope it doesn't get lost in politics.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Lawyer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 41 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sanctions might spur dialogue on transparency and governance within international organizations like the IOC.
  • It's admirable for the U.S. to hold international figures accountable where human rights are concerned, provided it's grounded in evidence.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Oil Industry Worker (Houston, TX)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This may affect diplomatic ties which could impact sectors like oil and energy long-term.
  • I'll be watching to see how these sanctions might alter any business operations, although not directly relevant to my day-to-day work.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 7

Stay-at-home Parent (Seattle, WA)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I love watching the Olympics and am worried about politics overshadowing the games.
  • Human rights are important, and I hope these actions reflect a diplomatic strategy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Tech Start-up Founder (Austin, TX)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy's good intentions must also be weighed against potential implications for U.S.-China business relations.
  • I believe it's possible to support both business and human rights, hoping this move isn't overly punitive without due process.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 7

Journalism Student (Boston, MA)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's important for countries like the U.S. to speak out about human rights abuses.
  • I'm curious about how effective sanctions can be in creating real change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $2000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $5000000)

Year 2: $2100000 (Low: $1050000, High: $5250000)

Year 3: $2200000 (Low: $1100000, High: $5500000)

Year 5: $2400000 (Low: $1200000, High: $6000000)

Year 10: $3000000 (Low: $1500000, High: $7500000)

Year 100: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $25000000)

Key Considerations