Bill Overview
Title: Import Security and Fairness Act
Description: This bill excludes imported articles from nonmarket economy countries or countries on the priority watch list from receiving de minimis treatment. De minimis treatment allows imported articles valued under $800 to enter the United States without paying duties, fees, taxes, or interest. The bill also directs U.S. Customs and Border Protection to collect additional information on merchandise that may qualify for de minimis treatment.
Sponsors: Rep. Blumenauer, Earl [D-OR-3]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by changes to de minimis treatment on imports
Estimated Size: 200000000
- The bill affects primarily consumers and businesses in the U.S. who frequently purchase low-cost goods from nonmarket economy countries or countries on the priority watch list due to the removal of de minimis treatment for these imports.
- It could affect importers and retailers who may face increased costs due to the removal of duty-free status on certain low-value imports, possibly leading to increased prices for consumers.
- Additionally, manufacturers and suppliers located in nonmarket economy countries, which are large sources of low-cost goods to the U.S., will be indirectly affected by potentially reduced demand due to increased costs.
- Overall, while it directly affects import protocols and pricing structures, the changes will trickle down to affect end consumers purchasing such goods.
Reasoning
- The policy will directly impact consumers who rely on purchasing low-cost goods from specific countries. These consumers might represent a broad demographic, including younger individuals who often shop online and those seeking cost-effective solutions.
- Small businesses and retailers may also be substantially affected. Many rely on importing goods from regions now affected by this policy, leading to potential cost increases that can either be absorbed by the businesses or passed on to consumers.
- The policy may lead to a notable impact on businesses in the supply chain, with middlemen adjusting their sources or marking up their prices.
- While the policy influence is clear for some groups, other consumers who do not frequently buy imported goods from affected countries or rely on domestic products will see little to no change.
Simulated Interviews
E-commerce Small Business Owner (Austin, TX)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- An increase in import duties will raise my costs significantly.
- I'll have to increase prices on my items, which could reduce customer demand.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Tech Professional (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If tech gadgets from overseas become more expensive, I'll have to reconsider my personal spending.
- Might ultimately affect how I choose my tech upgrades.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retailer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My business relies on affordable imports to keep prices competitive.
- I'm worried that customers will turn to other shops if I have to increase prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
College Student (Houston, TX)
Age: 21 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If prices go up for my school supplies, I might need to spend less on other things.
- I might have to plan my purchases more carefully now.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Factory Manager (Seattle, WA)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If the imports get more expensive, it could mean more business for our plant.
- We might see more demand for local production, which could lead to job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Fashion Designer (New York, NY)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increasing import costs challenges the affordability of my resources.
- Might lead to fewer creative opportunities due to restricted budgets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy doesn't affect me much as I rely more on local brands and products.
- I do occasionally buy from abroad but not often enough to be impacted.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Supply Chain Analyst (Denver, CO)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could lead to a reevaluation of the supply chains we currently use.
- Short-term effects might hurt, but long-term we may secure more resilient chains.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Wholesale Supplier (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Changes in import duties will make my current operations model less profitable.
- Might need to renegotiate deals or change suppliers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
High School Student (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 18 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I might get fewer new items if prices go up, but it's not a huge deal.
- I'll mostly keep buying like I do, but maybe watch for sales more.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 10: $45000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $55000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Impact on U.S.-China trade as many goods from China fall under nonmarket economy and priority watch list categories.
- Potential inflationary effects due to price increases on low-cost consumer goods.
- Administrative burden on U.S. Customs and Border Protection to enforce new rules effectively.