Bill Overview
Title: National Security Moratorium on Foreign Purchases of U.S. Land
Description: This bill requires the President to take actions necessary to bar foreign persons (individuals or entities) from purchasing public or private real estate in the United States for the five-year period beginning from this bill's enactment. The Government Accountability Office must report to Congress (1) certain information on the purchase and ownership of U.S. real estate by foreign persons; and (2) recommendations to make it easier for U.S. citizens and harder for foreign persons to purchase U.S. real estate, including farmland.
Sponsors: Rep. Gohmert, Louie [R-TX-1]
Target Audience
Population: People involved in international real estate transactions
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The moratorium directly affects foreign individuals or entities interested in purchasing real estate in the U.S.
- Real estate market dynamics could shift due to changes in buyer demographics, affecting both U.S. sellers and other buyers.
- It could lead to a decrease in real estate prices due to reduced competition from foreign buyers, impacting American property values.
- U.S. citizens could potentially benefit from less competition in the real estate market.
Reasoning
- The policy aims to restrict foreign buyers from purchasing U.S. real estate, potentially reducing competition and affecting property prices. This may benefit U.S. buyers by making real estate more affordable and ensuring more Americans can enter the market.
- The policy has budget constraints and is targeted at affecting the real estate market dynamics, which means it isn't directly interacting with individual citizens but is projected to shift the broader market trends.
- While foreign entity purchase restrictions are direct, the indirect effects on U.S. citizens and market dynamics could range significantly due to factors such as location demand, property type, and specific economic conditions.
Simulated Interviews
Real estate agent (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could reduce my client base since I deal with international luxury buyers.
- I expect fewer bidding wars, which could lower turnover rates for sales.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Software engineer (Austin, TX)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- With fewer foreign buyers, I'm hopeful housing prices will stabilize, making it easier for me to buy.
- I'm all for policies that help locals secure homes first.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Farmer (Rural Iowa)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The moratorium may affect the marketability of the land if I decided to sell.
- Land values might drop with a decreased buying pool, but better for local opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about my property value decreasing with reduced foreign interest.
- However, I could also see more stable long-term renters locally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Graduate student (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 25 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Lower competition from foreign buyers may make rentals easier to find.
- However, not owning property means I'm not directly benefiting from this policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Corporate lawyer (Dallas, TX)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The moratorium could reduce my client base as fewer foreign buyers will need legal assistance.
- I'm worried this could make my niche less profitable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 8 |
Tech entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe the policy could open more opportunities for local tech and housing growth.
- Restricting foreign buyers may balance local investment.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Bank loan officer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There may be fewer international clients applying for loans, which could impact my sales.
- I might need to pivot towards local markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
University professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is interesting academically but doesn’t directly impact my day-to-day.
- Curious to see long-term effects and if it alters perceptions globally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Environmental activist (Portland, OR)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see potential for this policy to enhance local opportunities for sustainable housing.
- It may prevent overdevelopment by speculative foreign interests.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $35000000)
Year 2: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 3: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 5: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Potential backlash and diplomatic tensions from countries affected by the moratorium.
- Effects on real estate markets could impact related industries, such as construction and local services.
- Potential benefits to U.S. citizens experiencing less competition in the real estate market.