Bill Overview
Title: Investing in Domestic Semiconductor Manufacturing Act
Description: This bill expands the incentives program that provides support to produce semiconductors, and related materials and equipment, in the United States.
Sponsors: Rep. Eshoo, Anna G. [D-CA-18]
Target Audience
Population: People employed in semiconductor-related industries and supply chains
Estimated Size: 3000000
- The bill aims to increase domestic semiconductor production in the United States.
- Semiconductor manufacturing involves a significant number of workers, from engineers and technicians to production line workers.
- The economic effects of increased semiconductor production will ripple out to other industries, including technology, automotive, and consumer electronics, which increasingly rely on semiconductors.
- The bill's focus is on incentivizing U.S.-based production, which primarily impacts businesses and their employees within the United States.
- Globally, any shift in production dynamics and supply chains due to increased U.S. production can have indirect effects abroad, especially in countries currently leading in semiconductor manufacturing.
Reasoning
- The bill broadly affects people employed in semiconductor manufacturing and adjacent industries like technology and automotive sectors. However, given the policy's high budget cost, our interviews should focus on segments heavily impacted, like semiconductor workers, engineers in the tech industry, and assembly line workers at car manufacturing plants relying on semiconductors.
- We expect varying impacts depending on proximity to semiconductor activities; those directly in manufacturing will be most affected, while those in peripheral industries may feel secondary benefits due to broader economic improvements.
- Given that high-impact interviews likely represent a smaller subset of the population deeply involved with the industry, we'll include a mix of high-impact and low-impact examples to provide a comprehensive analysis.
- We'll consider demographic diversity (age, gender, occupation) to ensure our interviews reflect a realistic cross-section of affected people.
Simulated Interviews
Semiconductor Engineer (Austin, TX)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could significantly bolster job security within my firm by expanding production capabilities.
- Increasing domestic production will also reduce reliance on critical imports which is great for national security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Software Engineer (San Jose, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The initiative could stabilize supply chains and lead to lower costs for our products.
- Disruptions due to global semiconductor shortages have been a constant fear, so domestic production is reassuring.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Manufacturing Technician (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy has allowed for job creation in sectors that were previously seeing a decline.
- Having more domestic plants opens opportunities for upward mobility in my career.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 3 |
Automotive Plant Manager (Detroit, MI)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Improving semiconductor supply domestically helps ensure we can keep manufacturing schedules on track.
- This will benefit our industry as we move toward more advanced, tech-heavy car models.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Research Scientist (Hillsboro, OR)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Increased funding may lead to more research opportunities and collaborations.
- Building U.S. leadership in semiconductor technology is important for long-term competitiveness.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Graduate Student (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 24 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might expand job opportunities post-graduation, particularly in advanced tech roles.
- I am hopeful this investment will lead to more innovation hubs near universities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Electrical Engineer (Pittsburgh, PA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill might translate to more consulting opportunities as production scales do require expert advice.
- I hope this growth is sustainable and does not lead to overcapacity.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 4 |
Supply Chain Analyst (Albany, NY)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The potential stabilization of semiconductor supply chains is significant for maintaining operational fluidity.
- I expect our analysis to show improved output allocations globally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reliable access to semiconductors would enhance the operation and innovation potential of startups like mine.
- I anticipate the bill will help lower component costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Elementary School Teacher (Birmingham, AL)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 20/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Unaware of significant impacts from the policy on my job or daily life.
- Potential broad economic growth could trickle down benefits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $6000000000 (Low: $5000000000, High: $7000000000)
Year 2: $6200000000 (Low: $5200000000, High: $7200000000)
Year 3: $6400000000 (Low: $5300000000, High: $7300000000)
Year 5: $6800000000 (Low: $5600000000, High: $7800000000)
Year 10: $7200000000 (Low: $6000000000, High: $8200000000)
Year 100: $8000000000 (Low: $6800000000, High: $8800000000)
Key Considerations
- The rapid pace of technological advancements in semiconductor manufacturing may lead to shifts in investment needs over time.
- Geopolitical influences, such as trade tensions with existing semiconductor manufacturing leaders, may impact the policy's effectiveness.
- Environmental impacts resulting from large-scale semiconductor manufacturing need to be managed effectively.
- The policy's success depends on complementary factors such as skilled labor availability and R&D spending.