Bill Overview
Title: Stop Iranian Drones Act
Description: This bill expands existing provisions requiring sanctions against individuals or entities that provide certain types of weapons to Iran. Specifically, the bill modifies the provisions by adding unmanned combat aerial vehicles to the list of weapons covered by the sanctions. The bill also requires the Department of State to periodically report to Congress on the identities of any Iranian entity that has attacked a U.S. citizen using an unmanned combat aerial vehicle. The President must designate any such entity as a foreign terrorist organization.
Sponsors: Rep. McCaul, Michael T. [R-TX-10]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals potentially impacted by sanctions on unmanned combat aerial vehicle-related entities linked to Iran
Estimated Size: 1000000
- The bill focuses on unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly referred to as drones, which are used for military operations.
- Iran is considered to have a significant drone program, and their UAVs may have been used in various regional conflicts.
- Sanctions typically aim to limit the capacity of sanctioned entities to operate internationally, affecting trade and transactions.
- Entities across the globe involved in trading with Iran or in unmanned aviation might face restrictions, leading to significant economic impacts.
- Regional security dynamics could shift, particularly in the Middle East, where Iran operates its military projects.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily impacts individuals and companies involved in international trade and defense industries, especially those connected to aviation and drones.
- Given the policy's focus on enhancing sanctions related to Iranian drones, the direct impact is relatively restricted to industries and personnel dealing with these specifics, indicating a moderate-specificity audience.
- Only a fraction of the population directly engages with trade that might infringe these new sanctions, hence, the common individual would experience negligible direct impact.
- The US has approximately 1 million individuals whose professional or financial circumstances could be tangibly altered by these sanctions, such as those in aerospace or defense sectors.
- The policy's broader implications may influence citizens interested in international relations and Middle Eastern policy, but this does not translate directly into personal economic or social effects.
Simulated Interviews
Aerospace Engineer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about potential restrictions that could affect our business operations.
- Regulatory compliance could increase operational costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't expect this policy to impact my work directly.
- I'm more interested in the geopolitical implications.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Foreign Policy Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy reflects a strategic tightening of control over UAV technologies.
- I anticipate shifts in regional balances of power.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
University Professor (Austin, TX)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act represents a significant case study for my classes.
- I am interested in its long-term effects rather than short-term personal impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Tech Startup Founder (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While sanctions could close some doors, innovation in AI can pivot into new areas.
- It's a challenge but not insurmountable.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Government Lobbyist (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 53 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Navigating these sanctions will be challenging for my clients in the defense sector.
- It might increase my relevance in advising compliance strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Defense Contractor (Houston, TX)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could complicate our supply chains and compliance.
- Might lead to reevaluation of some partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Retired (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 62 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope this policy strengthens national security.
- The direct impact on me is non-existent.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Peace Activist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Military sanctions can escalate geopolitical tensions.
- I am more concerned with their humanitarian impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
High School Teacher (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This will be an interesting topic to discuss with my students.
- I don't anticipate a personal impact from this act.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)
Year 2: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)
Year 3: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)
Year 5: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)
Year 10: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)
Year 100: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)
Key Considerations
- The policy aims to reinforce existing sanctions with a focus on UAVs, requiring extra vigilance and resources for monitoring and enforcement.
- Financial institutions and companies may face compliance costs to ensure they do not transact with sanctioned entities.
- Sanction effectiveness may hinge on multilateral cooperation and support from international partners.