Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/5497

Bill Overview

Title: BURMA Act of 2021

Description: This bill imposes sanctions pertaining to Burma (Myanmar) and addresses related issues. The President must impose property- and visa-blocking sanctions on certain foreign persons (i.e., an individual or entity), including those that (1) knowingly operate in Burma's defense sector, (2) are responsible for or complicit in undermining Burma's democratic processes, or (3) are senior leaders in Burma's military or government. The Department of the Treasury must prohibit or impose strict conditions on certain accounts used to facilitate transactions for such sanctioned persons. The President may impose sanctions on Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise if such sanctions would support certain objectives, including reducing the Burmese military's ability to undermine democracy in Burma. Before removing certain foreign persons from a list of specially designated nationals and blocked persons (commonly known as the SDN list), the President must certify to Congress that the person in question has not knowingly engaged in certain activities, such as supporting terrorism. The bill authorizes Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development activities in Burma and the surrounding region to support democracy activists, humanitarian assistance, and reconciliation efforts. The State Department may (1) continue to assist organizations supporting political prisoners in Burma, and (2) provide assistance to entities investigating crimes against humanity. The President must direct U.S. representatives to the United Nations to vote and advocate for certain actions related to Burma, such as cutting off assistance to Burma's government.

Sponsors: Rep. Meeks, Gregory W. [D-NY-5]

Target Audience

Population: People in Burma (Myanmar) and individuals globally connected to Burma's defense sector

Estimated Size: 5000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Foreign Affairs Analyst (Washington D.C.)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My work might see an increased workload and perhaps more funding as a result of this policy. It's gratifying to see concrete actions being proposed to support democracy, though these changes are mostly administrative for me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

International Business Consultant (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 46 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about advice to clients who might have interests in Burma. The sanctions could complicate their business plans, but it's another day in international trade. It's part of our job to navigate these complexities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Humanitarian Aid Worker (Austin, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think this policy could lead to an uptick in funding for our programs. More funds mean more outreach and support we can provide, which is great for our mission.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Investment Analyst (New York, NY)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Sanctions might deter some investments in the region, affecting market dynamics. Our portfolios might need adjusting, but such political risks are baked into our strategies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 4

Policy Advisor (Chicago, IL)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This legislation highlights the U.S.'s commitment to democracy. While it won't affect my wellbeing directly, it's professionally relevant and aligns with my work advocating for global political reforms.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Tech Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 31 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't expect this policy to affect me directly. It's highly specialized. My interest is more from a global impact angle, seeing how sanctions influence international tech collaboration.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

University Professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 48 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will provide new material for my curriculum. It's a real-world example of U.S. foreign intervention priorities and consequences.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Non-profit Director (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 56 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill can be a stepping stone in focusing resources to help the people of Burma. We might get support for our on-ground initiatives, which is uplifting for our mission.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Freelance Writer (Denver, CO)

Age: 27 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The implications of this policy will give me new topics to explore. It fosters an enhanced understanding of U.S. foreign policy impacts that I can share with my readers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 4 4

Retired Military Officer (Miami, FL)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm interested in how these sanctions impact military dynamics and ethics. Always skeptical about sanctions, but it's worth monitoring strategies like these that aim to pivot power flows.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $12000000)

Year 2: $12000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $14000000)

Year 3: $14000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $16000000)

Year 5: $16000000 (Low: $14000000, High: $18000000)

Year 10: $20000000 (Low: $17000000, High: $23000000)

Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Key Considerations