Policy Impact Analysis - 117/HR/4821

Bill Overview

Title: To hold accountable senior officials of the Government of the People's Republic of China who are responsible for or have directly carried out, at any time, persecution of Christians or other religious minorities in China, and for other purposes.

Description: This bill expresses the sense of Congress that the United States should promote religious freedom in China and makes statements of policy related to such freedom. In particular, the bill states that it is U.S. policy to consider senior Chinese government officials who are responsible for the persecution of Christians or other religious minorities in China to have committed (1) a gross violation of internationally recognized human rights for the purpose of imposing certain sanctions, and (2) a particularly severe violation of religious freedom for the purpose of determining whether such an individual is admissible into the United States.

Sponsors: Rep. Hartzler, Vicky [R-MO-4]

Target Audience

Population: Religious minorities in China experiencing persecution

Estimated Size: 1000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Human Rights Advocate (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe that the US should take a firm stance against persecution regardless of the budgetary constraints.
  • This policy could set an important precedent for international human rights.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Pastor (New York, NY)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The announced policy is a step in the right direction to protect religious freedom.
  • I hope this leads to real change for those persecuted in China.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 4

Software Engineer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I doubt this policy change will make a significant impact.
  • It can be frustrating to see slow action even though it sends a message.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 5

Retired Diplomat (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 64 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is important, but without concrete actions, it might not change on-the-ground realities for persecuted groups.
  • Support from other international players is crucial.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Academic Researcher (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Symbolically, this policy signals a commitment by the US to religious freedom.
  • Measuring the effectiveness of such policies is challenging.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Social Worker (Boston, MA)

Age: 41 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • For many families, policies like these offer some reassurance, though immediate impact is minimal.
  • We need more grass-root support to bring about change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

College Student (Houston, TX)

Age: 23 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see this policy as a chance for solidarity with Christians abroad.
  • It's good, but we should be ready to push for more action.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Policy Analyst (Washington, DC)

Age: 53 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Meaningful implementation may require broader international cooperation.
  • Policies like these are needed but must be accompanied by diplomatic efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Businessman (Miami, FL)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy has potential but I'm skeptical about its real impact without broader action.
  • It's a start, but there's a long way to go.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Non-Profit Organizer (Denver, CO)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these show commitment to religious freedom, which is encouraging.
  • Still, practical support for refugees is essential.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)

Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)

Year 3: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)

Year 5: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)

Year 10: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)

Year 100: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)

Key Considerations