Bill Overview
Title: Assault Weapons Ban of 2022
Description: This bill makes it a crime to knowingly import, sell, manufacture, transfer, or possess a semiautomatic assault weapon (SAW) or large capacity ammunition feeding device (LCAFD). The prohibition does not apply to a firearm that is (1) manually operated by bolt, pump, lever, or slide action, except for certain shotguns; (2) permanently inoperable; (3) an antique; (4) only capable of firing rimfire ammunition; or (5) a rifle or shotgun specifically identified by make and model. The bill also exempts from the prohibition the following, with respect to a SAW or LCAFD: importation, sale, manufacture, transfer, or possession related to certain law enforcement efforts, or authorized tests or experiments; importation, sale, transfer, or possession related to securing nuclear materials; and possession by a retired law enforcement officer. The bill permits continued possession, sale, or transfer of a grandfathered SAW, which must be securely stored. A licensed gun dealer must conduct a background check prior to the sale or transfer of a grandfathered SAW between private parties. The bill permits continued possession of, but prohibits sale or transfer of, a grandfathered LCAFD. Newly manufactured LCAFDs must display serial number identification. Newly manufactured SAWs and LCAFDs must display the date of manufacture. The bill also allows a state or local government to use Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant Program funds to compensate individuals who surrender a SAW or LCAFD under a buy-back program.
Sponsors: Rep. Cicilline, David N. [D-RI-1]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals globally impacted by restrictions on semiautomatic assault weapons and LCAFDs
Estimated Size: 10000000
- The ban will directly affect individuals who currently own, sell, manufacture, or distribute semiautomatic assault weapons and large capacity ammunition feeding devices.
- There will also be indirect effects on gun dealers, manufacturers, and retailers due to changes in product lines and potential lost revenue from the banned products.
- The bill includes exemptions for law enforcement and specific uses, so active law enforcement are not included in the target population.
- Retired law enforcement who possess these weapons will be able to retain them, thus experiencing minimal impact.
- The bill affects gun owners who possess or wish to purchase these weapons, potentially requiring changes in their purchasing behavior.
- The gun culture and community, including those who advocate for gun rights or gun control, are affected collectively as policy impacts influence societal norms and legislative focus.
Reasoning
- The population directly affected by the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022 includes individuals who currently own, sell, or manufacture semiautomatic assault weapons and large capacity ammunition feeding devices (LCAFDs).
- The ban affects a subset of the approximately 79 million American gun owners, specifically those owning or transacting semi-automatic assault weapons, estimated to be around 7.9 million individuals.
- Indirect effects on manufacturers, gun dealers, and retailers could manifest as shifts in market dynamics or potential revenue losses from restricted products.
- The policy also indirectly influences societal norms around gun rights and gun control, impacting communities aligned with these ideologies.
- Given the budgetary constraints, policy impact measures (like buy-back programs) must carefully allocate funds to achieve the intended objectives without exceeding fiscal limits.
- Understanding the impact across diverse demographic and occupational groups helps in assessing societal and economic outcomes and anticipating challenges in implementation.
Simulated Interviews
Gun shop owner (Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the safety concerns, but this impacts my livelihood. I'll need to shift my product line significantly.
- The grandfathering clause will help some of my customers retain their items, though new sales will be tough.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Software engineer (California)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think it's a positive step for public safety. It won't directly affect me, but I hope it brings some peace of mind.
- While it's crucial, this should be part of a broader approach to gun violence.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired police officer (Florida)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm glad retirees can keep their firearms, but I'm worried about the infringement on rights for other law-abiding citizens.
- These checks shouldn't overlook responsible owners who contribute positively to their communities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Student (New York)
Age: 22 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's encouraging to see progress on gun safety, but I worry about enforcement and loopholes.
- Public awareness and continuous dialogue are necessary to ensure long-term effectiveness.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Retired nurse (Ohio)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Since my collection is exempt, I'm less affected, but it may alter hunting activities and ownership culture in general.
- Changes in laws should carefully consider hobbyist and collector communities to avoid broad strokes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Gun rights activist (Illinois)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is a step back for rights defenders and may not effectively address the core issues of crime and violence.
- I fear stabilization could push harder or more divisive measures in the future.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Firearm range instructor (Colorado)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This ban may impact class sizes and curricula we offer, so we must adapt our services.
- Safety and security should remain priorities, but realistic practices should prevail in legislative measures.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Hunter and outdoor sports enthusiast (Vermont)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Hunting is a big part of life here, and while I'm involved in it, I have concerns about these declines in firearm availability.
- The community will need clear information and support in the face of these guidelines.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Marketer for a firearm manufacturer (Arizona)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about job security with these changes and how our company will evolve its offerings.
- There needs to be consideration for affected industries as new laws shape them.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Lawyer with a focus on constitutional rights (Michigan)
Age: 46 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- From a legal standpoint, it's critical to assess constitutional impacts, although societal safety needs addressing.
- Ensuring no infringement on legal ownership rights is paramount in any new policy application.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $42000000, High: $62000000)
Year 3: $54000000 (Low: $44000000, High: $64000000)
Year 5: $58000000 (Low: $48000000, High: $68000000)
Year 10: $70000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $80000000)
Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $90000000, High: $110000000)
Key Considerations
- The lack of a federal registry complicates determining the exact number of existing SAWs, affecting precise impact assessments.
- Current political and public sentiment towards gun control measures could affect the implementation and public acceptance of the policy.
- Legal challenges and lobbying may hinder the bill's full realization, affecting the estimated costs and savings.
- The policy's impact is partly contingent on cooperation with state and local governments through grant program funding allocations.