Bill Overview
Title: Wildfire Recovery Act
Description: This bill makes changes with respect to the federal cost share for Fire Management Assistance Grants and provides that the federal share shall be not less than 75% of the eligible cost. Specifically, the bill directs the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to conduct and complete a rulemaking to provide criteria for the circumstances under which FEMA may recommend that the President increase the federal cost share. Such criteria shall include a threshold metric that assesses the financial impact to a state or local government from responding to a fire for which fire management assistance is being provided.
Sponsors: Rep. Neguse, Joe [D-CO-2]
Target Audience
Population: People impacted by wildfires
Estimated Size: 15000000
- The bill deals with Fire Management Assistance Grants, which are related to wildfire events.
- Wildfires can impact large rural and urban areas, displacement, and property destruction.
- People affected by wildfires include not only those living directly in the path but also those affected economically by resource allocation or loss.
- Federal agencies, local municipalities, and state governments will be affected by changes in funding structures in wildfire-prone areas.
Reasoning
- For simulating the impact of the Wildfire Recovery Act, we need to consider different demographics based on wildfire severity and location.
- Affected individuals include those directly facing wildfires, such as residents and business owners, and indirectly through economic impacts.
- Different regions in the US have varied wildfire risks; thus, expectational interviews will be conducted based on risk profiling, such as in California, Oregon, and Washington.
- The policy impact is stronger where grants can alleviate the immediate financial burden of wildfire damage, helping recovery efforts.
- Given the need to balance budget constraints, we'll simulate people principally affected by high-frequency fire zones and financial vulnerabilities.
- The future 'self-reported wellbeing' scores give insight into perceived personal recovery rates post-fire incidents.
Simulated Interviews
Firefighter (Redding, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The increased funding will ensure our operations are better supported during intense fire seasons.
- More funding might mean longer work hours but at least families including mine will have better protection.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Restaurant Owner (Portland, OR)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Financial recovery aid is critical for us to bounce back.
- Without the policy, economic downturns could become catastrophic.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Wildlife Biologist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The act could mean job security and better resources for habitat recovery.
- I'm hopeful but cautious—funding distribution will need to be clear.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Retired (Santa Rosa, CA)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It would make relocation and rebuilding more viable.
- I feel anxious about how long the support might last.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
School Principal (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The program will make it easier to manage school closures and protect students.
- There's a need for clear priority-setting to take full advantage of this support.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Local Government Official (Bend, OR)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The increase in federal assistance will significantly improve our disaster response capabilities.
- We need consistent support to ensure preparation and effective management.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Farmer (Boise, ID)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Federal support is crucial for economic recovery in agriculture.
- I fear prolonged financial struggles without such interventions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
College Student (Sacramento, CA)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The added assistance is reassuring, especially for students living off-campus.
- My primary concern is timely access to mental health support and basic services during fires.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Nurse (Denver, CO)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy's success hinges on rapid deployment and comprehensive coordination with medical facilities.
- Relief in funding could mean better crisis readiness, but distribution must be swift.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 3 |
Insurance risk assessor (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The reform may level the playing field slightly in assessing risks and premiums.
- Continued cooperation between FEMA resources and insurance will be essential.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $51500000 (Low: $36000000, High: $72000000)
Year 3: $53045000 (Low: $37080000, High: $74160000)
Year 5: $56113248 (Low: $39264000, High: $78528000)
Year 10: $61506169 (Low: $43024320, High: $86048640)
Year 100: $171596734 (Low: $119591488, High: $239182976)
Key Considerations
- Frequency and severity of wildfires can significantly influence cost estimates.
- Future projections of climate change effects on wildfire activity could alter funding requirements.
- Relationship between federal and state funding structures in disaster recovery scenarios.